Asian Regional Reviews

Steve Rundle

In this issue I would like to provide readers some online resources to monitor events in Indonesia. Indonesia has the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, is the 4h most populous nation on earth, and sits astride several key sea lines of communication. It is undergoing a huge transformation, and that change was vividly demonstrated on 7 June when Indonesia held its first free elections in 44 years. As of this writing, the outcome is still unclear, but it is unmistakable that the political landscape of Indonesia will radically change. 48 political parties and more than 11,000 candidates are vying for 462 of 500 parliamentary seats (38 seats are reserved for the military). The leading political party is Megawati Sukamoputri's Indonesian Democratic PartyStruggle (PDI-P). The current arovernment's party, Golkar, is led by Indonesian President B.J. Habibie and will also draw a substantial number of votes due to its entrenched presence at the local government level . Other key parties are the National Mandate Party (PAN) led by Amien Rais, and the National Awaking Party (PKB), led by Abdurrahman Wahid, who is also the leader of Indonesia's largest Muslim Group, the Nahdlatul. The issues surrounding this election and those faced by the new government over a very short period of time are truly prodigious.

One of the most pressing of these issues is the status of East Timor. On 8 August, the East Timorese will vote on accep- tance of an autonomy program under the guidance of the Indonesian government. If autonomy is not accepted, then the question is whether the new government will grant East Timor independence. Other issues include separatist movements in Aceh and Irian Jaya, sorting out ethnic and religious violence, the role of the military, and economic recovery. These issues are not going to wait for any new government, and instability as part of a governmental turnover, may well exacerbate these problems.

To follow these events a good online start-point is the Asia Society's web page at http://www.asiasociety.org. This site has an abundance of information concerning all of Asia. For Indonesia especially, I went directly to their special reports section to Edward Master's Indonesia's 1999 Elections: A Second Chance at Democracy (May 1999). This provides background and an overview on the lead up to the current elections, political parties involved, military activities, etc. There are also special reports concerning Timor, Aceh, Ambon, religious tensions, separatist movements, and the Chinese minority. Other sites of interest that can help one track the outcome of the elections, as well as follow events as they unfold, are the following: http://students.washington.edu/loren. A well maintained site with links covering politics and many of the human rights issues as well. However, one should be aware that some of the sites linked from here are in Indonesian. The Indonesian National Election Commission runs a site with the most current information on election results, political candidates and press releases. it is located at http://www.kpu.go.id. Also, Inside Indonesia magazine, located at http://www.insideindonesia.org is published quarterly by the Indonesian Resources and Information Program (IRIP). The IRIP comprises academic specialists on Indonesia, members of overseas aid agencies, development action groups and trade unions in Australia. The Jakarta Post is online at http:// jakartapost.com:8890 but I have not been able to bring it up.

William J. Duiker, in his book, Vietnam: Revolution in Transition, has taken a large, complex subject and covered it in a clear and concise manner. He provides excellent summaries throughout that bring his text together and highlight his key points. His ability to cover much-debated subjects, such as the US involvement in Vietnam in a balanced fashion is one of his strongest traits. The book is a straightforward introductory text on Vietnam, divided into well-organized chapters that make for trouble-free locating exactly what one is searching for. It is an ideal book for someone starting from scratch studying a nation that has had such an impact on the American consciousness. Be- sides its role in our military history, Vietnam's importance is also based on its strategic location just south of the People's Republic of China.

Vietnam's long and "Jekyell-Hyde" relationship with China is one of the major themes throughout the book. Under direct Chinese control for a 1,000 years, Vietnam has looked to China as a model for art, literature, architecture, social customs and many religious beliefs. However, conflict between the two has periodically erupted, giving rise on both sides to an undercur- rent of suspicion and wariness that permeates all bilateral rela- tions. How these two nations interact and work to resolve their issues will be an important component in developing a peaceful and prosperous Asia over the coming decades.

Conflict with the West, is another theme that weaves itself through Vietnamese history. The Indochina Wars, first with the French, then followed by the United States, represent important periods in Vietnamese history. Duiker covers these in a neutral and impartial manner. I found his assessment of the roots Of failure in the Diem regime to be an excellent example of his clear and concise writing style. His discussion of why the communist North succeeded in its conquest of the South is also admirably summarized. He argues that there is no doubt that the US did not militarily lose the war; instead, he writes, "To the contrary, US military superiority had significantly blunted Communist momentum in the late 1960's, the Tet Offensive notwithstanding. The US failure, above all, was in not overcoming the disparity between political capacities of the Communists and those Of its ally in Saigon." (p.77) It is interesting to note that the same political capacities that led the North to victory after so many years Of war, should today be one of its main, obstacles to prosperity.

The unified Vietnamese government's attempt at assimilation of the South (still incomplete) and problems of its hugh political bureaucracy provide the reader with a good understanding of some of the dilemmas faced by Vietnam's postwar leadership. The government's inflexibility and adherence to party dogma ill equipped it to deal with the demands of assimilation of the south. The move from a war economy to a peacetime economy that must compete with the likes of Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia is a battle still not won. In addition, corruption, especially at the local level has been hard to combat.

Another interesting trend is that the Vietnamese Commu nist Party leadership has been amazingly stable since the 1940's. This has allowed for it to follow a single path with little deviation, but one of the costs of stability is that it has been a gerontocracy. The rigidity of many of these older senior members did little to help the government adjust to the new demands that victory placed on it over the last 24 years. The singular direction of the government has been to pursue its goal of a fully socialistic society. Duiker sums this up by stating, "party leaders are willing to make tactical concessions when necessary to avoid disaster but will resist compromising on basic principles." (p. 161) Vietnam's admission to ASEAN seems not to have altered this course whatsoever, and this trend is still evident today. The result is that Vietnam's development lags behind many of its Asian neighbors.

Duiker's ability to simply explain complex systems, identify trends, and focus on significant themes in the Vietnamese experience, makes this book an excellent source for those wishing to take a short look at this important country. If I was to find any fault with the book, it is that at times it can be dry as the author winds his way through the labyrinth of party evolution, plenums, and constitutional changes. That small note aside, he has done an outstanding job in giving us a balanced and impartial introductory text. If one is looking for an update to fill in the 4 years since the book was published, I recommend using the journal Asian Survey, with its excellent annual overview of each Asian nation.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts, ideas, and reviews in this column rundles @ pom-emh 1. army. mil .

1999, Foreign Area Officer Association
Springfield, Virginia
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