The Future of Peace in Jerusalem
By Major J.R. Johnson, USA
This summer I had the opportunity to travel to Israel and the Palestinian Authority
to observe the ongoing Entifada. I went during the cease-fire surrounding the visit of
George Tenet, Director of the CIA, and his efforts to get both sides to implement the
Mitchell Report. Because of the cease-fire, I had exceptional access into areas that are
usually off limits to Americans and had interaction with Palestinians, Israelis, and
American officials working the issue first hand.
What I saw did not give me great hope for a peaceful or quick resolution to the
conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. However, the attack on 11 September
gave new life to the peace process. That said, the issues that surround this conflict are
not being addressed at this time, and may lead to more confrontations between two
future sovereign states.
Observations
That which keeps the Entifada from being crushed is the economic "day after".
There is no doubt in anyone's mind that the Entifada could be over in 72 hours. The
Israeli army has already planned it, they've rehearsed it, and they've implemented it
numerous times on a small scale. Each of the "tank incursions" into Palestinian territory
is in fact, a small-scale execution of the overall plan to crush the Entifada.
However, Israel has far too much American and European based business in the
western half of the country, to use a military solution. While it is true that the economy
is down, mainly from a lack of tourism, the fallout of a military solution would hurt too
many venture capital operations, large company branch offices and factories, to make it
viable. The Israeli government knows they are slowly starving the Palestinians out,
and hope that in time, their economic meltdown (45-50% unemployment) will drive the
Entifada to an end.
The issue of the Palestinian refugees will never get full resolution under the
present type of government. It is an economic impossibility. Right now there are
millions of Palestinians living in camps outside of Israel that have never been in Israel
and have zero job skills. At the same time, there is the highest unemployment rate in
the Arab world within Palestinian Authority territory. Neither the Israelis nor the
Palestinian Authority can economically permit hundreds of thousands of new workers
into a region that cannot support the present citizenry. Agriculturally, the region will not
support the present inhabitants, let alone millions more.
The refugee issue is a key element as to the failure of the Wye River Accords.
The US press made the matter out to be something else, but Arafat could not save
face, and sell out the refugees, nor could he or Barak let them back into
Israel/Palestine.
Wye River failed for a number of reasons, on both sides. The issues of the Right
of Return for Palestinian refugees, Jerusalem as a Capitol and Ethnicity of the West
Bank are all topics that currently have no solution. All of these issues must be resolved
prior to a successful implementation of a Palestinian State.
Israeli issues
The most damaging event to the State of Israel today is the Palestinian Entifada.
Israeli Security Forces are part of that problem. Israeli Army patrols in the worst parts of
Jerusalem are not prepared for combat situations. They are overall too young and
inexperienced and they are not led by NCOs with enough experience to monitor the
threat. Their patrol discipline is low, cell phones are used during patrols to make
personal calls, uniforms look poor, weapons are used as crutches to lean on, breaks
are taken in obvious places with no security in place, there is zero situational
awareness.
These patrols use the strength of a mixed Arab-Israeli crowd to harass Palestinian
youths. The result is that these patrols get themselves into violent situations because
they are not paying attention. Then due to the youth of the leadership on the ground,
they get scared and resort to defensive rifle-fire in the face of stones and Molitov
cocktails.
At the border stations, they have conscripts of mixed sex, little training, little to no
supervision, and officers with attitudes of bravado conducting all immigration/customs
checks. The end result is that they are far more interested in talking to each other on
the their radios than they are doing real checks. What they do check looked to be
solely on the basis of race. A terrorist operation could pick up on this and use
European looking members to make deliveries of weapons or explosives.
The Labor Party and it's doves are virtually dead in Israeli politics, with no chance
of a resurrection in the next year or two. With Barak's defeat in the spring, the coffin
began to close on the Labor Party. When Sharon opened his government to former
Labor Party members, under a National Government, he nailed it shut. Many Labor
politicians were eager to restore their careers after the failure of Barak's government,
and to get inline with the conservative backlash of the Israeli population.
Entrance into this government meant political salvation, but at a price. That price
being loyalty to the conservative government and the policies of the Sharon
government. Unfortunately for the Labor party, Sharon's methods have been
marginally successful and the public sees something being done toward cracking down
on the Palestinians. This has given the "doves" of the Labor party no room for
opposition. Actually, a healthy percentage of the public favors a much more severe
backlash, it is Sharon that keeps the "hawks" from using public support to crush the
Entifada.
Palestinian Issues
Young Palestinians, ages 15-35, see this Entifada not as just another uprising
against a hostile Israeli government, but as THE struggle for Independence. In the
past, the PLO and other Palestinian groups would have seen this as a battle in the war
against Israel. But for various reasons, mainly disenchantment with the status quo, the
younger two generations don't see it that way. Instead, they want it all now and seem
to be willing to make the sacrifices to do so. The problem is that a group willing to do
anything for independence is being led by men who don't see the fight in the same light
as their constituents. If there were some type of an event that overwhelmed the Arab
populace, Arafat and his government could lose control over the Entifada.
Already a new grass roots level of leadership is growing out of the fight. And with the
Israeli assassination campaign at work, some of the most promising post-Arafat
leadership is being killed. That leaves only the untrained survivors to choose from
when Arafat dies.
At some point these street leaders will be able to control the violence, and then
they will want or demand the reins of leadership. That could cause a breakdown of
order in Palestine. Even now, the seeds of discontent are sewn. You hear from young
Palestinians that they disappointed by the ground given in negociation and are not
content with what was offered to Palestinians, and are generally disappointed in Arafat.
They'd rather be fighting and dying than give in to Israel. Arafat and his ministers may
have no choice but to condone the violence, just in an attempt to maintain a hold on
power.
Another source of discontent is that corruption and cronyism is rampant within the
Palestinian Authority. Much of this is coming to light in that the Authority still exists, but
does little to help out the people. People are asking where the monies donated to the
Palestinian government are going. They are seeing the affect of the loss of the Israeli
government services and wondering how the Palestinian government can replicate
these services.
Conclusions
There is no doubt that the present relations between the Israelis and Palestinians
are worse now than they have been since the Oslo Accords were signed. The Arabs
hope for a break in the stalemate of the last year by an American declaration of
recognition of a Palestinian State or European pressure on Israel. Palestinians would
love to have a UN force separating the two sides. But neither side holds any hope for a
cessation of hostilities, left to their own devises. In fact the opposite seems more likely.
Much of the Israeli populace supports the hard-line approach that Sharon is taking
to the Entifada, and would favor tougher restrictions and even perhaps a military
solution to the uprising. The pressure of Europe and the other Arab countries, both
economic and political are having very little affect on the Israeli government. And the
Palestinians do not seem capable of mounting a threat large enough to scare the
Israelis into peace negotiations.
However, in light of the recent attacks on America, the United States is not going
to back any major strikes or retaliatory interventions into Palestinian territory. The US
needs support from all the Arab countries it can muster into the coalition against
terrorism. These countries are going to use the Palestinian Statehood issue as
leverage on the US for entry into or support of this Coalition. This bodes well for the
Palestinians and may mean the Israelis may have to take a back seat in the region
while we wage this war. Some Israeli Labor members are starting to question the
political landscape after Sharon, which could prove the beginning of real opposition to
the present policies.
Many point to US policy in this conflict as the reason or justification for the
September 11th attacks. But it has always been our desire to see a
peaceful resolution between these two parties. And in spite of US anger over the
attacks on America, the attacks may indeed be the propellent that finally creates a
Palestinian State.
2001, Foreign Area Officer Association
Springfield,
Virginia
Maintained by LTC Steve
Gotowicki.
http://www.faoa.org
