The Coming
Crisis
By Major J.R. Johnson
I recently spent three weeks in the Persian Gulf touring the region, interviewing
State Department and US military personnel, and speaking to many outside observers.
It became quite clear to me that this entire region is headed for even more unrest,
trouble and upheaval-not from another Iraqi invasion or from Iran closing off the Gulf,
not even from the confines of Islam, but from problems within. There are three areas as
future sources of conflict for all the Gulf States, should they not take steps to alleviate
them. The first is a population explosion that could foster a massive unemployment
problem. Secondly, the depletion of oil reserves, and thirdly, a fresh water crisis.
First there is the problem of a population explosion and future unemployment.
Modern health care and improvements in diet have created a double-edged sword in
the Gulf States. There has been an increase in life expectancy of most of the
population, and a reduced infant mortality rate. These, combined with government and
religious programs encouraging large families lasting into the 1980s, have resulted in a
population explosion.
At present, the Gulf has the highest per capita of its population under the age of 25
in the world. And while this may not seem like a large problem, one must consider the
impact of the current job/welfare program in most Gulf countries. The method these
Kings and Princes have used to stay in power is to promise 100% employment,
benefits, and subsidies for all citizens. Typically these jobs are paper pushing and have
no real performance requirements associated with them. The citizens are pleased
because they have high paying jobs with benefits and little or no real work. It has
created a bureaucratic empire and turned the Arab population into a welfare work-force
that is ineffectual, unskilled, and made the government dependent upon south Asian
technicians.
These leaders have staked their future on their ability to keep the native population
100% employed with zero-substance jobs. As we begin the new century, the largest
portion of the population is still in Middle and High School. Soon they are going hit the
job market and demand jobs equal to their fathers and grandfathers.
However, the universities have not moved to accommodate the future glut of
citizens. Instead of pushing petroleum technology or engineering, the most popular
curriculum is still Islamic Studies. Many Arabs study in the US and England, but they
take language instead of mining or farming classes. This is not what Shell Oil or Brown
& Root are looking for in future executives.
Each Gulf State has begun a program encouraging the future employment training
of its citizenry. The Saudization or Emiratization or Kuwaitization of the work force touts
the entrance of native Arab artisans, engineers, salesmen, and local businessmen and
the exit of expatriate (non-Arab) workers. Unfortunately, the result is some natives
going into real jobs formerly held by third country nationals (TCNs), but in actuality it is
more of a strong-arm maneuver by the governments to force the western companies to
hire "engineers" and "managers", who typically demand high salaries, but perform few
tasks. They are the private sector equivalent to their bureaucrat countrymen.
Secondly, there is the coming oil crisis. The mention of an oil crisis with a barrel of
oil in the $30+ range seems ridiculous. Yet, a crisis is coming for the Gulf, not the
world, over oil. The combination of dwindling oil reserves within the Gulf, an increase of
oil discoveries in Africa, central Asia and the ocean, and the beginning of a move away
from a glutinous oil consumption in the West, means the prospects for a continued
boom in the Gulf economies looks gloomy.
Granted, the world is not ready for a quick move away from oil. Most eastern and
developing economies are completely dependent upon oil to fulfill their industrial needs.
Even in the United States, our biggest oil use is for electrical production and home
heating. Western oil experts agree that large-scale oil consumption will lessen soon,
but also know that petroleum based business is ready for diversification of the product.
So, it is known the world won't give up using vast quantities of oil in the immediate
future.
However, some western nations are sick of the pollution and high prices. Auto
companies have put electric cars into the mainstream. Alternative energy sources are
being explored and used throughout the world. And larger economies have begun to
move away from oil to natural gas and hydroelectric power to fuel their industrial
production. While these moves don't signal the end of the oil hey-day, they do signal
the autumn of the oil-based economies.
These countries know the end is coming, they just don't know what to do about it.
The Saudi Arabian Oil Minister, Ali Na'imi appeared on BBC in April and admitted that
this present spike in oil prices is the last hurrah of the dying market. The Kuwaitis and
Saudis still have oil, but at the present production levels, they will run out as early as
2025 according to some analysts. Given those figures, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman
will all run out much earlier. Unless the Gulf nations can come up with some other
industry to put the population into the workforce, they face the bankruptcy of their
economies, and the disintegration of their infrastructure as the TCNs abandon a sinking
ship.
Lastly, there is an absolute crisis over water. Much sooner than the Arab nations
of the Gulf will run out of oil, they will have run out of all natural sources of water, and be
completely dependent upon outside nations for their water needs.
Presently Gulf nations have no water policy. They import large portions of their
drinking water already, and what aquifers they do have, they are depleting far faster
than can naturally be replenished. At this point, they are using desalination plants
powered by natural gas. While that may help in the short term, the present demands of
water in most Gulf states threatens to overwhelm the already stressed desalination
capabilities.
And worst still, most of the water is being wasted. Saudi, UAE, and Kuwait are
draining their aquifers, and import large amounts of water or desalinate water to pour on
palm trees lining the highways. Most Gulf states don't even charge their citizens for
water use; it is free!
Many have said that the next war won't be fought over oil, but over water. The
sides are already being drawn for that war. The Turks are already using dams to limit
water reaching Iraq and Syria. Now they are going to sell water by the tanker load to
the highest bidder. They've already made lucrative deals with Jordan and Israel to
supplement these nations existing water supplies.
Israel and Syria cannot agree over the Golan Heights for many reasons. One
major reason is the spring network that feeds the Jordan River in Syria. Israel currently
has all of that fresh water piped into Israel; so returning the Golan Heights would greatly
reduce the fresh water supply for Israel.
Iran has made deals with Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar to sell them water via a
pipeline from their northwest region. It is not only a moneymaker for the Iranians, but
once these three nations are dependent upon Iranian water supplies, Iran will have
broken the power of the Gulf Cooperation Council, should they threaten to cut off the
water supply to their dry customers.
At this point, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have begun dumping some recycled water
into their aquifers. While it helps, they also need to dump most of their desalinated
water back in just to save them. Further, they need to increase efforts to trap and use
wastewater created through carelessness. Few people know that Kuwait City and
Riyadh sit on underground lakes of unusable wastewater lost from poor plumbing, lawn
care, street cleaning, and palm watering.
Unless the Gulf States break their foolish uses of water, begin to use a recycle
process with their waste, and attempt to save the aquifers, they will be completely
dependent upon the goodwill of their non-Arab neighbors and the west for their water
supplies, at fair market value. This crisis threatens to peak just about the same time the
oil reserves run out, leaving them without the oil revenues to buy water.
The Persian Gulf's future is again threatened by crisis. Instead of invading armies
or political upheaval, the threat comes from what is already happening in the Gulf
countries. If these states do not take steps to better educate and move their population
into the workforce, develop other means of national income, and reform their water
usage practices, then they face catastrophic consequences both economically and
politically. Consequences include: a broken economy dependent on a dwindling
product, with demand and price both falling; a workforce of managers unable to lead;
and even the fall of the monarchies in some of the more conservative nations.
2001, Foreign Area Officer Association
Springfield,
Virginia
Maintained by LTC Steve
Gotowicki.
http://www.faoa.org